AMC Entertainment’s stock price has staged a strong bull run this month, reaching its highest point since November last year.

It has jumped by 165% from its lowest point this year, and is about to form a golden cross pattern, which may hint at stronger gains ahead.

AMC stock nears golden cross pattern

Technicals suggest that the AMC share price has more room to run, especially if the golden cross pattern forms.

The daily chart shows that the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) has narrowed substantially, and the crossover may happen as the momentum continues.

The 50-day EMA stands at $1.70, while the 200-day is at $1.96. 

Other technical indicators point to more gains this year. For example, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has jumped to 41, its highest point since May 1 this year. It has also jumped above the key resistance level of $1.93, its highest point on April 17. 

Therefore, the most likely AMC stock forecast is bullish, with the next level to watch being at $3.15, its highest level in October last year. A drop below the key support level of $1.93 will invalidate the bullish view.

AMC stock chart | Source: TradingView

AMC is benefiting from the Box Office comeback, but dilution is a risk

The main reason behind the ongoing AMC stock rally is the ongoing rebound of the Box Office.

In a statement released earlier this month, the company said that it welcomed more than 4.2 million moviegoers to its US locations in May. 

Globally, the figure jumped to 25.5 million, the highest level since May 2019. This growth is a continuation of what has been happening this year, with titles like The Super Mario Galaxy, Michael, Project Hail Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Pegasus being among the most popular.

This growth will likely continue as several titles are expected to be released. This includes popular names like The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Moana, and The Hunger Games.

AMC stock also rose after the company published its financial results. Its revenue rose to $1.04 billion in the first quarter from the $862 million it made last year. 

Its adjusted EBITDA improved to $38.3 million from a loss of $57.2 million in the same quarter last year. Also, it narrowed its losses, with its net loss improving to $117.1 million from the previous $201 million. 

Analysts are largely optimistic about the company, with the annual revenue expected to jump by 12% this year to $5.4 billion.

It is expected to jump to $5.7 billion next year, with the company expected to turn a net profit in 2027.

This view likely explains why the CEO recently bought shares worth over $344k. 

Still, the company has a major risk ahead: dilution. It recently completed its at-the-market raising of $150 million to boost its balance sheet.

Over time, AMC has boosted its outstanding shares from 58 million in 2023 to 605 million today. 

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Rocket Lab stock price has pulled back from its all-time high as the recent rally takes a breather. RKLB dropped to $104 on Tuesday, down by 31% from its highest point this year. This pullback has led to a $27 billion wipeout as its market cap has fallen from $87 billion to $60 billion today. So, is it safe to buy the dip or sell the rip?

Rocket Lab stock has slipped amid profit-taking

RKLB has retreated into a technical bear market as investors dump space companies following a remarkable bull run earlier this year. Planet Labs has slumped 45% from its year-to-date high. 

Similarly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire, and Virgin Galactic have all plunged more than 50% from their highs this year. Before the SpaceX IPO,these were all some of the best-performing companies, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) surging from $15 in April 2024 to a high of $68.3.

Fundamentally, Rocket Lab’s business is doing well as the number of launches and revenue backlog jump. Its Electron vehicle has already launched 261 satellites, with over 1,700 satellites being in orbit.

RKLB’s revenue growth is continuing

The recent financial results revealed that Rocket Lab’s revenue jumped by 63% in the first quarter to $200.3 million. These are strong numbers considering that the company made just $61 million in the whole of 2021.

Its gross margin expanded to 38.2%, while the company recorded 31 new Electron and HASTE contracts during the quarter. Its Neutron product contracts also continued rising during the quarter.

This growth is expected to continue growing in the next few years as demand for commercial and government launches rise. The average estimate is that its revenue will come in at $231 million in the second quarter, up by 60% this year.

Rocket Lab’s annual revenue is expected to jump by 51% this year to $914 million, followed by $1.29 billion next year. If this trend continues, it may get to $5 billion by 2030, with Neutron being the biggest catalyst. 

Neutron has a payload capacity of 13,000 kilograms and has a reusability configuration. It has a bigger payload capacity than Electron, which has a payload capacity of 300 kilograms to sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) and 320 kilograms to low Earth orbit (LEO).

Still, Rocket Lab stock has some potential risks ahead. One of these risks is its valuation and dilution. It has continued to increase the number of outstanding shares in the past few years, moving from 460 million earlier last year to 575 million today. It used this approach to raise $2 billion last year.

At the same time, there are signs that the company is highly overvalued, with the forward price-to-sales ratio rising to 70, much higher than other companies. Still, analysts predict that it has some more upside, with KeyCorp targeting a rise to $135 and Stifel boosting its target to $132.

RKLB stock price technical analysis

Rocket Lab stock chart | Source: TradingView

Rocket Lab stock has pulled back by 30% from the year-to-date high. This retreat is mostly because of a situation known as buying the rumor and selling the news. This is where investors bought space stocks ahead of the SpaceX IPO and are now selling since it has happened.

RKLB stock has dropped below the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped from 43 to 26, a sign that the downtrend is losing momentum. 

The stock has also formed a rising broadening wedge, a common bullish continuation sign in technical analysis. Therefore, there are two potential scenarios going forward. 

The stock may continue falling, potentially to the lower side of the wedge pattern at $80 and then rebound. On the other hand, a drop below the lower side of the wedge will point to further downside, potentially to $50.

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SoFi stock is going through a rough patch that has seen its valuation drop from nearly $40 billion in November last year to $22.7 billion today. It has slipped by 32% this year, while popular US indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have jumped by double digits. 

SoFi Technologies’ retreat could either create a good entry point for long-term investors, or a big mistake if the weakness continues. 

Muddy Waters report dented SoFi stock

US investors and analysts have soured on SoFi shares, a trend that accelerated after a report by Muddy Waters. This report alleged that the company had an unrecorded debt worth about $312 million and that it engaged in aggressive accounting to boost its revenue growth metrics. It also noted that the firm had substantial understated credit losses. 

At the same time, Muddy Waters accused the company of financial engineering to meet bonuses. It pointed to its share dilution, which has seen its outstanding shares jump to 1.28 billion from 805 million in 2021. Earlier this year, SoFi raised $1.5 billion to boost its balance sheet and fund growth. 

Equity issuances are usually bearish for stocks because they dilute existing shareholders. 

SoFi Technologies business is doing well

Despite these challenges, Anthony Noto and the team have continued to innovate and position the company for future growth. Since becoming CEO in 2017, he has added its products from 3 to 12 today, making it a “financial supermarket”.

Its platform now offers most services that people use, including personal loans, mortgages, credit scores, an investing platform, and credit card. It recently relaunched its crypto trading platform, allowing users to buy, sell, and hold over 25 coins. 

Most recently, it moved into the growing stablecoin industry by launching SoFiUSD. SoFiUSD is backed by the US dollars and aligns with the GENIUS Act. Still, the challenge is that the industry has become highly competitive, with newer stablecoins like PYUSD and RLUSD struggling to gain market share.

The most recent numbers showed that SoFi’s business was doing well. Its revenue jumped by 41% to $1.1 billion, while its adjusted EBITDA was up by 62% to a record high of $340 million. 

This growth happened as its members grew by 35% to 14.7 million, and its total originations hit $12.2 billion. Wall Street analysts are optimistic that its business has more room for growth. The estimate is that its annual revenue will jump 30% this year to $4.6 billion, followed by $5.7 billion next year. Its earnings-per-share is also expected to grow from 58 cents this year to 78 cents in 2027.

There are signs that SoFi is not all that overvalued, especially when you compare its revenue growth and its margins. Its forward revenue growth for the year is 30%, while its profit margin is 14%, giving it a rule-of-40 metric of 44%.

SoFi share price technical analysis

SoFi stock chart | Source: TradingView

There are signs that the SoFi stock price has bottomed as bears have failed to drag it below the key support of $14.97. It has formed a double-bottom pattern at this level and a neckline at $20, its highest point on April 17.

The double-bottom level is crucial as it coincided with the strong, pivot, reverse point of the Murry Math Lines.  It has flipped the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, while it’s too early to call a bottom, there is a possibility that it will rebound in the near term. A clear bullish breakout will be confirmed if it moves above the neckline at $20. Such a move will point to more gains to $25.

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Circle Internet Group stock price has pulled back in the past few days, moving from a high of $138.5 in May to the current $79.72. This CRCL pullback may continue in the near future as it faces a triple-whammy of weak technicals, falling USDC supply, and US government yields. 

Circle stock price has formed a double-top pattern

Technicals suggest that the CRCL stock has retreated in the past few weeks, moving from a high of $138.50 in May to $79.7, its lowest level since March 2nd this year. That is a sign that it has moved to a technical bear market.

Most importantly, the stock has formed a double-top pattern whose height is $51 ($135 minus $84). Subtracting the height pattern’s height from the neckline of $79, gives it a target of $28. If this happens, the stock will have dropped by 90% from its all-time high. This view will be confirmed if it drops below the all-time low of $50.

Other technicals are bearish on the stock. For example, it remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 37. 

The stock is also slowly forming a bearish flag pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a small horizontal channel. 

CRCL stock chart | Source: TradingView

USDC supply is falling

The other main risk that the company is facing is that USDC, its main asset, has dropped in the past few weeks. Data compiled by CoinMarketCap shows that the supply of the USDC token has dropped from $79.3 billion in March to $74 billion today. Artemis data places the number at $76 billion.

The falling USDC supply is notable because of Circle’s business model. Like other stablecoin issuers, the company makes its money by investing the funds in US government bonds. It is a model similar to how banks make money, with the only difference being that it is not allowed to invest in other assets like commercial bonds. 

This business model means that the company is not benefiting from the rising usage. Artemis data shows that the volume jumped by 15% in the last 30 days to over $2.6 trillion, while the number of active addresses rose to 16 million.

Falling US government bond yields

The ongoing USDC supply has also coincided with a continued decline in U.S. government bond yields, alongside a retreat in crude oil and natural gas prices. Data shows that the two-year yield has fallen from 4.20% earlier this month to 4.05%. The five-year yield has dropped to 4.155% from its year-to-date high of 4.35%. It has also formed a double-top pattern, suggesting further downside potential.

US bond yields have eased recently after the US inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran. This MoU will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which explains why crude oil prices have pulled back in the past few days. As such, there is a possibility that the Fed will not have the urgency to hike interest rates.

As such, Circle Internet Group is facing the double-whammy of falling assets and interest rates, which will affect its revenue growth. 

The company is also facing another challenge: Arc. Arc, its layer-1 network, may face the challenges that have been faced by other chains like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain. Most of these chains have seen a sharp retreat in its total value locked (TVL). As such, after raising $222 million from BlackRock and Apollo, there is a risk that the token will retreat after its debut.

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US stocks opened slightly higher on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision and monitored developments in the Middle East that continued to influence oil prices and broader market sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 50 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.11% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.28%.

Wednesday’s opening followed a mixed session on Wall Street Tuesday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high for a second consecutive day while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated as investors took profits in technology shares.

Investors await first Fed decision under Warsh

Market participants are primarily focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern Time.

The meeting marks the first interest-rate decision under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is expected to hold a press conference after the announcement.

Economists and traders widely expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged within the current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

Attention will instead center on Warsh’s comments regarding inflation, economic growth, and the outlook for future monetary policy.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders continue to expect rates to remain unchanged for much of the year, although markets are assigning roughly a 43% probability of a quarter-point rate increase in December.

Investors are also awaiting the release of May retail sales data, which could provide additional insight into the strength of consumer spending and the broader economy.

Oil prices rise as Iran deal uncertainty persists

Oil prices moved modestly higher after President Donald Trump suggested that a proposed agreement between the United States and Iran had not yet been finalized.

Trump said the US would “go right back to dropping bombs” if he did not approve of the final agreement.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose nearly 1% to around $76 per barrel, while Brent crude futures climbed close to 1% to approximately $79 per barrel.

Oil had fallen sharply earlier in the week after reports that Washington and Tehran were working toward an agreement that would extend an existing ceasefire and allow oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The possibility of increased oil exports and reduced geopolitical tensions helped drive crude prices to their lowest levels since March, easing some concerns about inflation.

Chip stocks rebound as risk appetite improves

Technology and semiconductor stocks showed signs of recovery in premarket trading after leading losses earlier in the week.

Intel rose about 2.3% after beginning production of its advanced 18A-P chip node, a development that moves the company closer to potentially securing additional chip manufacturing business.

Other semiconductor names also advanced. ASML gained roughly 6%, while shares of Broadcom, Micron Technology, and Advanced Micro Devices rose between 0.72% and 2.1%.

The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF climbed approximately 0.67%.

Meanwhile, SpaceX continued its strong post-IPO run, rising nearly 1.96% in trading after surpassing Amazon’s market value on Tuesday to become the world’s fifth-most valuable publicly traded company.

Global markets were broadly positive.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached a fresh record high, advancing 0.72%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.58%. European stocks also moved higher, with the Stoxx 600 index rising 0.3%.

As investors await the Fed’s decision, markets remain focused on the balance between easing inflation pressures, economic growth prospects, and the path of future interest rates.

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